More than 20 percent of global Oil & Gas supplies sails through this 33 km narrow strait.
Iranian Parliament passed the ordinance with full majority in which they ordered the Navy of Iran to choke Hormuz strait in retaliation of bombings of three nuclear plants by the USA (Operation Midnight Hammer). The bill got worldwide criticism and spread fear among oil importing countries regarding supply shortage & spike in prices.
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Fear among Developing World
Hormuz strait is an integral part of the global oil supply chain and Iran’s warning to block it, can throw the growth rate of the global economy into stagnation.
World major economies have not yet transitioned themselves into Green energy based economies, they still heavily rely over crude & N.G to meet their energy demands and will continue to rely for decades as their transition rate is too slow.
Big developing economies like India, China, Japan are Crude importing countries and a major chunk of their energy sails through Hormuz. Small negative fiscal deficit nations like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives may declare themselves bankrupt because of sudden spike in price of crude.
The blockade will have a catastrophic effect damaging suppliers too as Gulf economies are designated as Oil economies, a major chunk of their revenue comes from selling these fossil fuels.
If Iran moves forward unilaterally, following this barbaric & unlawful ordinance, they will be hitting their own leg with an axe as they are surviving by selling crude & natural gas to China bypassing sanctions. No other country trades with them in fear of reciprocal tariffs. So, the blockade of the strait will ultimately convert into a blockade of its dying economy.
India, China enjoy strong diplomatic, economic relations with Iran. Most probably they won’t let Iran take this bold decision as it hurts their collective interest severely. United States Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio has urged both nations to stop Iran.
Russia-Europe Peace Deal
As Iran-Israel war duration will extend, it will compel Europe to sign a peace deal with the Russian Federation over the Ukraine war.
European countries have not transitioned yet into fulfilling their energy needs from renewable sources. They still rely on oil & natural gas to meet their demand, especially LNG to warm their houses during winter.
Before (2022 Russian aggression), the EU fulfilled their needs from Russia through various pipelines like Nord Stream. But after Russia invaded Ukraine, they sanctioned Russian crude and halted buying from them under USA influence. Though Americans have massive oil & gas reserves, they are not drilling it, rather importing it from others citing environmental protests and climate change.
Europeans needed gas to stop being freezed from chilling Arctic winds and to run Industries. They can’t approach Venezuela(proven world’s largest oil reserve) because they have sanctioned them. So, they rushed to QATAR for uninterrupted supplies.
But now Iran’s decision to block the Hormuz will again bring the crisis of gas in the World’s Garden. Thus, the hypocrite Europeans will be forced to sign an unconditional peace agreement with the Russians to secure gas supplies.
Regime Change (MIGA)
President Trump is continuously provoking Iran. After striking their nuclear sites(Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan) under Operation Midnight Hammer, he recently posted on his platform Truth Social regarding regime change in Iran & is the only way to Make Iran Great Again.
The Israeli government is also vocal towards this agenda and continuously trying to bring back West Poster boy Reza Pahlavi rule in Iran. The Muslim regime warned the United States to face consequences if they tried to hit their Supreme leader. But can they do that?
Since the USA is a member of NATO alliance and if they will be hit by Iran. Article 5 of NATO will execute and all 32 member countries will have to jump into the conflict and assault Iran together.
The POTUS ‘regular updating over the Iranian regime is signaling US boots on ground action as bombings through planes can’t change the regime.
