Nifty and Banknifty Prediction for 29 September 2023

Indian Stock Market faced brutal sell off on Thursday(28th September). Since today was monthly expiry as well as nifty weekly expiry, it was totally anticipated. Markets closed below 50MA in daily time frame which is a caution sign. Analysts at FINSITED have predicted this prior move and shared with its readers in yesterday post and in today’s post nifty and banknifty prediction for 29 September 2023, we will do analysis for Friday’s market behaviour. Yesterday, We already hinted that the relief rally is temporary and the pattern of O.I’s clearly indicated that fall will come. FII’s remained net seller today by selling 3364 crores worth of stocks in capital markets. Tomorrow is SENSEX expiry as well as Nifty midcap expiry because Monday is trading holiday.

Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow

Today was nifty weekly expiry. It made high of 19766, low of 19492 and closed at day’s low.

Heavy O.I’s were detected at spot 19500,19600,19700 both sides i.e., call and put but C.E shorts were aggressive compare to P.E shorts. Literally traders have shorted deep in the money which shows that they are confident to break the market whereas by any chance market starts sustaining above 19600, then these aggressive C.E shorts will start unwinding leading to sharp up move.

• It can show upside move if it breaks (19590-19606) levels and can show targets of 19660,19726 and further.
• It can show downside move if it breaches (19485-19500) levels and can show targets of 19451,19400.

Banknifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Nifty Bank was giving uneven spikes both sides that’s why it was difficult to trade it for both buyers or sellers. It made high of 44756, low of 44248 and closed at day’s low.

Aggressive C.E shorts were at 44500,44600,44700 while P.E shorts O.I’s were minimal at 44400,44500 which sounds like nifty bank has further downside targets open. There are also valid reasons like crude surpassed $90 mark after April 2022. If nifty bank starts trading above 44450, then heavy unwinding is also possible but probability is low. Premiums will decay fast because Monday is trading holiday.

• It can show upside move, if it breaks (44420-44435) range, keep trailing SL till 44666,44885.
• It can show downside move, if it breaks (44230-44245) range, keep trailing SL till 44040,43897.

Finnifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Finnifty is basically a instrument of Nifty Bank because HDFC Bank(30% weightage), ICICI Bank(25% weightage). So, it will move the same way where Banknifty will drag it.

• It can show upside move if it breaks (19908-19927) level, targets will be 19999,20065.
• It can show downside move if it breaches (19793-19810) level, targets will be 19717,19643.

Sensex Prediction for tomorrow

Sensex is having weekly expiry tomorrow. Let’s see how heavyweights like Reliance, TCS, HDFC Bank behaves tomorrow and drags Sensex in which direction. It made high of 66406,low of 65423 and closed at day’s low. Reliance and IT stocks were among the top draggers.

• It can show upside move if it crosses (65700-65715) levels, targets will be 65915,66087.
• It can show downside move if it breaches (65480-65500) levels, targets will be 65350,65100.

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Heavy Weights Forecast

Global Outlook

• Japan’s Nikkei was rangebound in first half but after break, a sharp sell off came and it closed in deep red.
• South Korea’s Kospi opened lower, spent time in range closed at day’s high in the end.
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost all gains immediately after opening then went to day’s high and again to day’s low, however closed marginally down.
• Shanghai and Hang Seng opened gap up and lost all its gain during the day, Hang Seng closed in deep red.
• European markets like Germany, France, Italy, U.K was having a relief rally today.
• U.S markets were very strong today. Nasdaq, S&P500 was up more than 1%.
• Dollar Index lost its yesterday gain today and was trading at the levels of 106.
• Crude oil was still trading above $90 mark and was marginally down. You can check live crude oil price at https://oilprice.com/

Conclusion

The Indian Stock Markets were under heavy selling pressure which we predicted in our last post. Relief rally was temporary and the bigger trend is bearish right now. Tomorrow is Sensex, Bankex and Nifty Midcap expiry too, due to holiday on Monday. Banknifty will remain in pressure due to sky rocketing crude oil price. We have a advice for our readers that if you are a option buyer, try to decrease your number of trades in this expiry because due to 10% rise in VIX, it had spiked premium prices even those of A.T.M, you can try scalping for smaller targets. If you are a option seller, you have Saturday, Sunday and Monday as time decay to eat premiums of Nifty Bank and Finnifty as they have nearby expiries. Sellers have got a good money making opportunity.

Note

• Remember all the levels provided above are valid even market open gap up or gap down. Just follow the levels because if you want to be a profitable trader then, follow the path of level to level trading only.
• Please execute trades only after 10a.m. when markets are less volatile and calm because in first hour of opening, big players adjust there position which can lead to unexpected loss in your demat.

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